Yes, Arpy Iguy is back for another year of his confusing enlightenment of the Ratings Percentage Index, and what you need to know abou how it relates to basketball in District 1.
If you didn’t see last year’s introduction to RPI, you can (and should) read about it here first. Click the link:
Arpy Iguy here again. So let's get to it...
A couple sets of RPI standings were recently released, so the #2's are now down to the nubs, and I got out the old desktop with WIN95, and got to work. Computers of the present time aren’t built for the for the heavy programming of today’s RPI formulas. So, I stick with what works.
The State RPI that was released on the WIAA website lists teams in statewide rankings. Basically, they are like every other poll, except it’s all my numbers, rather than eyeballs and opinions. It’s 40% your record; 40% your opponents record; and 20% the record of your opponents-opponents.
There was one change from previous years, and that is that out of state games will not be calculated. In the past, every out of state opponent was given a .500 winning percentage since it is impossible to follow and update those records manually, and then follow through with all three sets of percentages. So now, you could be 16-0, including four out of state wins. In that case, only 12 of those games will be calculated.
However, those four missing games may be considered by the seeding committee when they are seeding teams for state tournament play. If you win a tournament in California, for example, that information will be presented.
Once all teams have qualified for state through district tournaments, seeding committees will use the RPI as one of the tools used to seed teams 1-16 (or 1-20 in the 3A classification).
The state RPI seems to be less important than it has been in years past. it used to be that teams were placed very close to the order (or the exact order) in which they finished in the RPi standings. Now, the RPI is one of several tools that the committees will use. Its release creates talk, which is fine. You just can’t take the list as gospel. Just like any other poll.
“Hey, why is Fort Salmon (6-2) rated above Mount January (7-1)? MJ won the head-to-head.”
“Well, you can’t place teams in order of ‘who beat who.’ It’s about the numbers in the background. Maybe Fort has played a softer schedule. It will all fall into place at the end of the year.”
And it really does. RPI standings will be similar to others who post state polls by the end of the season. A release of the RPI standings in January has only half the season reported, and most teams have not played the “meat” of their schedule. For it to be meaningful at all, you have to let the season play out.
You can see the RPI standings for all boys and girls classifications on the WIAA website:
Closer to home, the District 1 RPI has also been released. There are 2A and 3A standings involving the Northwest and Wesco Conferences. This is used to blend teams into district tournament seedings. Several years ago, before District RPI, teams outside the NWC were seeded into a specific position, not seeded based on what their record happened to be.
For example, a 2A team (I believe from the KingCo Conference at the time) entering the district tournament had been given a specific place, which may have been the #3 seed, for example. And it would not have mattered whether that team was 15-5, or 5-15.
There are currently nine teams in the 2A classification in District 1, down from ten in previous years. Sedro-Woolley went 3A this year and Cedarcrest left for District 2. Marysville-Pilchuck dropped from 3A to 2A. Two of the nine will qualify for state.
The RPI calculation updates after every game, and at the end of the season, 2A teams will be ranked 1-9 and will be seeded that way into the district tournament. Only league games are in the calculation.
For the 3A district tournament, it is the same district formula, but teams will not be seeded automatically by RPI standings. There will be a committee used to place teams in seeding order.
In 3A, 12 teams will qualify for the district tournament with four qualifying for state. The 12 teams will be divided up to allow an equal percentage of teams, according to the league they play in. The Wesco South will qualify five teams. Wesco North will have four, and the NWC will get three. The committee may use the RPI standings to help them to formulate the order, since teams enter from three areas.
The difference between the Wesco and NWC conferences is that the Wesco teams, whether 2A or 3A, will play more games against 3A competition than against 2A competition. Winning a game against a 3A team gives you just a bit of an up-tic in your RPI score.
You may think that is a bit unfair to 2A teams, but in studying the numbers in multiple sports over several years, I don’t think that’s an issue. Yes, a 2A team from the Wesco with a worse record could pass you in the RPI standings, but those 3A games are “technically” harder to win. But, it’s not like a 5-10 record from the Wesco will be ahead of a 10-5 record from the NWC. I don’t know if you can get a better formula than what is currently being used.
So, take the RPI’s for what they are worth. The 2A and 3A district RPI’s will give you an idea of what the seeding might be. The state RPI is just for talk, at this point. In the end, you want to be in the top eight who qualify for state, which gives you a second chance, should you lose your regional game.
Now, for some headache meds. Until next time!
~ Arpy Iguy
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